Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

FRED / USDC

GCA7…ZLV6

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.000051 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0000514500035902170766125 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy23.78 USDC (shortened; full value 23.7858228639069465864300996433 USDC)sell24.24 USDC (shortened; full value 24.242181769784033708627884628431348624026945098414 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 0.00020 USDC (shortened; full value 0.00020580001436086830645 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 5 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 9.56 USDC (shortened; full value 9.5699050534584805189580967777 USDC)
Highest: 95.23 USDC (shortened; full value 95.2306801760037834744361091011 USDC)

2026-10-02T16:53:42Z — 2026-10-03T16:08:37ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 9.58 USDC (shortened; full value 9.5841243041602038876773779169 USDC)
5% from mid: 23.78 USDC (shortened; full value 23.7858228639069465864300996433 USDC)
10% from mid: 47.01 USDC (shortened; full value 47.0117439099779283533705460066 USDC)

25 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

23 of 25

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

23 of 25

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

2 of 25

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 0.00020 USDC (shortened; full value 0.00020580001436086830645 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 0.00020 USDC (shortened; full value 0.00020580001436086830645 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh