Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

FRED / USDC

GCA7…ZLV6

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.000051 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0000514500035902170766125 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy23.78 USDC (shortened; full value 23.7862570216828482755435498305 USDC)sell24.24 USDC (shortened; full value 24.242624257199835300147785976886534956680545897534 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 0.00020 USDC (shortened; full value 0.00020580001436086830645 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 5 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 9.56 USDC (shortened; full value 9.5699050534584805189580967777 USDC)
Highest: 98.01 USDC (shortened; full value 98.01527152791383936514877982 USDC)

2026-09-26T15:50:56Z — 2026-10-03T15:08:42ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 9.58 USDC (shortened; full value 9.5842992412273664255275838777 USDC)
5% from mid: 23.78 USDC (shortened; full value 23.7862570216828482755435498305 USDC)
10% from mid: 47.01 USDC (shortened; full value 47.0126020057559889514805421924 USDC)

169 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

120 of 169

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

88 of 169

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

49 of 169

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 0.00020 USDC (shortened; full value 0.00020580001436086830645 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 0.00020 USDC (shortened; full value 0.00020580001436086830645 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh