Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTCLN / USDC

GDPK…VBVT

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 10.41 USDC (shortened; full value 10.419248688805503458343170222852565260614895006268 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy10.08 USDC (shortened; full value 10.0885284359741717953639804706 USDC)sell10.28 USDC (shortened; full value 10.282082014718234954994098250066435974476291391354 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 4 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 3.56 USDC (shortened; full value 3.5604605265546535880679486573 USDC)
Highest: 360.70 USDC (shortened; full value 360.7037138708367144281429024649 USDC)

2026-09-11T17:47:56Z — 2026-10-02T10:38:32ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 4.10 USDC (shortened; full value 4.1063548970541034037796452189 USDC)
5% from mid: 350.68 USDC (shortened; full value 350.6882269245537160410633363223 USDC)
10% from mid: 360.63 USDC (shortened; full value 360.6394564974876861775675090727 USDC)

498 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

497 of 498

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

497 of 498

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

146 of 498

No genuine trade in 7 daysNO_GENUINE_TRADE_7D

106 of 498

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh