Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTCLN / USDC

GDPK…VBVT

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 10.41 USDC (shortened; full value 10.419248688805503458343170222852565260614895006268 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy10.08 USDC (shortened; full value 10.0885284359741717953639804706 USDC)sell10.28 USDC (shortened; full value 10.282082014718234954994098250066435974476291391354 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 4 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 4.01 USDC (shortened; full value 4.0122827571416606169234059312 USDC)
Highest: 360.65 USDC (shortened; full value 360.651514544739761213487307825 USDC)

2026-09-26T14:50:51Z — 2026-10-03T14:08:32ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 4.06 USDC (shortened; full value 4.0650241815310183187427063721 USDC)
5% from mid: 10.08 USDC (shortened; full value 10.0885494998589633743474399662 USDC)
10% from mid: 360.43 USDC (shortened; full value 360.4367223767559663065391024372 USDC)

169 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

throughout

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

No genuine trade in 7 daysNO_GENUINE_TRADE_7D

82 of 169

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh