Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTC / USDC

GDPJ…2MZM

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 1,411.95 USDC (shortened; full value 1411.956257792961606121939879036146586858921399358028 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy1,505.74 USDC (shortened; full value 1505.7424016753518678309553988353 USDC)sell1,633.78 USDC (shortened; full value 1633.782095041535188896391770911963754733855290684424 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 24,757.92 USDC (shortened; full value 24757.92079481005601674502488 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 0 USDC
Highest: 22,000.49 USDC (shortened; full value 22000.4982263745537966748088786891 USDC)

2026-09-11T17:47:56Z — 2026-10-02T10:38:32ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 187.93 USDC (shortened; full value 187.9386313098058811172608222728 USDC)
5% from mid: 1,474.06 USDC (shortened; full value 1474.0630018800728587097278789373 USDC)
10% from mid: 21,587.26 USDC (shortened; full value 21587.2643832612485205934963467257 USDC)

498 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

146 of 498

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

146 of 498

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

40 of 498

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 24,757.92 USDC (shortened; full value 24757.92079481005601674502488 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0.06 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0678091 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 365,112.0689 (shortened; full value 365112.0689525455435442296812669686)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 24,757.98 USDC (shortened; full value 24757.98860391005601674502488 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh