Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTC / USDC

GDPJ…2MZM

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 1,341.12 USDC (shortened; full value 1341.12615592481670648465909765457321358458736742106 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy2,266.35 USDC (shortened; full value 2266.3513234811350334744779921653 USDC)sell1,488.31 USDC (shortened; full value 1488.317108802189100238261722217246269137490930414572 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 24,833.50 USDC (shortened; full value 24833.50627816061844987137122 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 0 USDC
Highest: 22,010.98 USDC (shortened; full value 22010.9800859516168351456728932719 USDC)

2026-09-26T14:50:46Z — 2026-10-03T14:08:27ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 962.86 USDC (shortened; full value 962.8695925364944293317827470436 USDC)
5% from mid: 2,264.10 USDC (shortened; full value 2264.1029964999783607679905187932 USDC)
10% from mid: 21,888.61 USDC (shortened; full value 21888.6187230568922107820878793527 USDC)

169 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

3 of 169

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 24,833.50 USDC (shortened; full value 24833.50627816061844987137122 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 24,833.50 USDC (shortened; full value 24833.50627816061844987137122 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh