Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

AQUA / USDC

GBNZ…AQUA

Risk band

Medium

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 8,349.17 USDC (shortened; full value 8349.1751622000433588970242925 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy27,523.71 USDC (shortened; full value 27523.7105834004211724831670779282 USDC)sell24,953.65 USDC (shortened; full value 24953.658653226968036832564383239119549183600885197136 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 33,396.70 USDC (shortened; full value 33396.70064880017343558809717 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 2 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 8.92 USDC (shortened; full value 8.9242269977599002243213224007 USDC)
Highest: 31,670.21 USDC (shortened; full value 31670.2113488126401297871602311862 USDC)

2026-09-11T17:47:50Z — 2026-10-02T10:38:27ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 1,288.70 USDC (shortened; full value 1288.7087420141294740473364146981 USDC)
5% from mid: 5,173.87 USDC (shortened; full value 5173.8711072735646787763699343568 USDC)
10% from mid: 15,944.76 USDC (shortened; full value 15944.7627194620343080468064624801 USDC)

498 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

146 of 498

Cheap next to real tradingMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

145 of 498

Cheap to move the priceMANIPULATION_CHEAP

29 of 498

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 33,396.70 USDC (shortened; full value 33396.70064880017343558809717 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 4.38 USDC (shortened; full value 4.3826922 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 7,620.1337 (shortened; full value 7620.1337271187270316606074161448)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 33,401.08 USDC (shortened; full value 33401.08334100017343558809717 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh