Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

AQUA / USDC

GBNZ…AQUA

Risk band

Medium

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 8,335.16 USDC (shortened; full value 8335.168703975057239425865055 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy28,279.81 USDC (shortened; full value 28279.8120218957144922138221952167 USDC)sell23,962.29 USDC (shortened; full value 23962.298157727403314900800433433019966440615763288 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 33,340.67 USDC (shortened; full value 33340.67481590022895770346022 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 2 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 8.92 USDC (shortened; full value 8.9242269977599002243213224007 USDC)
Highest: 34,486.26 USDC (shortened; full value 34486.2695639108925398153861659588 USDC)

2026-09-26T15:50:46Z — 2026-10-03T15:08:27ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 22,295.31 USDC (shortened; full value 22295.3139295649454829702957592656 USDC)
5% from mid: 28,034.97 USDC (shortened; full value 28034.9752296721058032645880662326 USDC)
10% from mid: 31,984.27 USDC (shortened; full value 31984.2794878422842577181468832933 USDC)

169 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

157 of 169

Cheap to move the priceMANIPULATION_CHEAP

24 of 169

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 33,340.67 USDC (shortened; full value 33340.67481590022895770346022 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 33,340.67 USDC (shortened; full value 33340.67481590022895770346022 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh