Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

XTAR / USDC

GAOR…7IG4

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.02 USDC (shortened; full value 0.02077655000005 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy201.52 USDC (shortened; full value 201.5283656092709397359058435368 USDC)sell110.12 USDC (shortened; full value 110.123189100846818801637131420130577670001790453398 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 0.08 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0831062000002 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 5 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 0 USDC
Highest: 499.50 USDC (shortened; full value 499.5009604434562515430243411414 USDC)

2026-09-26T23:52:01Z — 2026-10-03T17:09:37ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 109.68 USDC (shortened; full value 109.6859632613266793912969288201 USDC)
5% from mid: 201.75 USDC (shortened; full value 201.7563238267553498308737040435 USDC)
10% from mid: 352.33 USDC (shortened; full value 352.3311945846140294516538975302 USDC)

8 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

1 of 8

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

5 of 8

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 0.08 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0831062000002 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 0.08 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0831062000002 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh