Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

XTAR / USDC

GAOR…7IG4

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.02 USDC (shortened; full value 0.02077655000005 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy198.47 USDC (shortened; full value 198.4773398694139794012018542132 USDC)sell113.15 USDC (shortened; full value 113.156182984899901693782740892145983996498575628822 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 0.08 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0831062000002 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 5 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 0 USDC
Highest: 506.01 USDC (shortened; full value 506.0167921189838815845639314149 USDC)

2026-09-11T17:48:29Z — 2026-10-02T10:09:37ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 148.24 USDC (shortened; full value 148.245343068805692132363265674 USDC)
5% from mid: 242.50 USDC (shortened; full value 242.5071153388600847538338700801 USDC)
10% from mid: 396.69 USDC (shortened; full value 396.6936585764585896465224889796 USDC)

498 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

140 of 498

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

140 of 498

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

110 of 498

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

268 of 498

Price sources disagreePRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

109 of 498

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 0.08 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0831062000002 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 0.08 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0831062000002 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh