Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

XTAR / USDC

GAOR…7IG4

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.02 USDC (shortened; full value 0.02077655000005 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy198.47 USDC (shortened; full value 198.4773398694139794012018542132 USDC)sell113.15 USDC (shortened; full value 113.156182984899901693782740892145983996498575628822 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 0.08 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0831062000002 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 5 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 109.38 USDC (shortened; full value 109.3833679886136203195696611332 USDC)
Highest: 512.11 USDC (shortened; full value 512.1118752993331710061625260634 USDC)

2026-10-02T18:54:42Z — 2026-10-03T18:24:42ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 109.49 USDC (shortened; full value 109.4982881048606625923490086383 USDC)
5% from mid: 201.56 USDC (shortened; full value 201.568658429556313778480227377 USDC)
10% from mid: 352.14 USDC (shortened; full value 352.1435451480385349250671838549 USDC)

25 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

3 of 25

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

22 of 25

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 0.08 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0831062000002 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 0.08 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0831062000002 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh