Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

XAU / USDC

GBCB…LXAU

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 12.60 USDC (shortened; full value 12.6084616000026176606 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy68.14 USDC (shortened; full value 68.1431231595734517478375923908 USDC)sell24.82 USDC (shortened; full value 24.8261098449909123476248698402882915626527330284 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 50.43 USDC (shortened; full value 50.4338464000104706424 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 2 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 15.18 USDC (shortened; full value 15.185766219213105650587737369 USDC)
Highest: 85.39 USDC (shortened; full value 85.3960154232336670239170360711 USDC)

2026-10-02T17:54:32Z — 2026-10-03T17:09:32ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 18.00 USDC (shortened; full value 18.0065472405704513337154585856 USDC)
5% from mid: 68.14 USDC (shortened; full value 68.1431231595734517478375923908 USDC)
10% from mid: 83.23 USDC (shortened; full value 83.2324971849570214425507075443 USDC)

25 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 50.43 USDC (shortened; full value 50.4338464000104706424 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 50.43 USDC (shortened; full value 50.4338464000104706424 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh