Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

VAQM / USDC

GC2B…BVCD

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 9.12 USDC (shortened; full value 9.123776520985568267146290451789532370557559490092 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy8.83 USDC (shortened; full value 8.8341741943003371507244865131 USDC)sell9.00 USDC (shortened; full value 9.003664397945094660918822742303641046335810336226 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 764.76 USDC (shortened; full value 764.76460592322 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 7 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 3.55 USDC (shortened; full value 3.5580447395471085112563127872 USDC)
Highest: 782.22 USDC (shortened; full value 782.2250039617836406135651331185 USDC)

2026-10-02T23:54:27Z — 2026-10-03T18:39:32ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 3.55 USDC (shortened; full value 3.5595919505166790345736033473 USDC)
5% from mid: 8.83 USDC (shortened; full value 8.8341741943003371507244865131 USDC)
10% from mid: 782.22 USDC (shortened; full value 782.2250039617836406135651331185 USDC)

2 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

throughout

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

throughout

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

throughout

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 764.76 USDC (shortened; full value 764.76460592322 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 764.76 USDC (shortened; full value 764.76460592322 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh