Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

USTRY / USDC

GCRY…MYWC

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 68,698.38 USDC (shortened; full value 68698.389316465376052373702385 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy274,695.10 USDC (shortened; full value 274695.1027050203275251991669010297 USDC)sell276,023.79 USDC (shortened; full value 276023.790190305709948445487515347267710164561804507199 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 274,793.55 USDC (shortened; full value 274793.55726586150420949480954 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 2 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 259,577.30 USDC (shortened; full value 259577.3076998333101079107017146169 USDC)
Highest: 276,340.23 USDC (shortened; full value 276340.2383891542836234367931623257 USDC)

2026-09-26T23:51:51Z — 2026-10-03T15:54:27ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 274,597.24 USDC (shortened; full value 274597.2433703086089205416953734974 USDC)
5% from mid: 274,709.92 USDC (shortened; full value 274709.9280068585208193052017054485 USDC)
10% from mid: 274,809.19 USDC (shortened; full value 274809.1967749283264435362436477487 USDC)

8 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 274,793.55 USDC (shortened; full value 274793.55726586150420949480954 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0.07 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0709299 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 3,874,156.8402 (shortened; full value 3874156.8402868396009228098381641593)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 274,793.62 USDC (shortened; full value 274793.62819576150420949480954 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh