Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

USTRY / USDC

GCRY…MYWC

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 68,697.46 USDC (shortened; full value 68697.461151201544336838833415 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy274,691.39 USDC (shortened; full value 274691.3900439650006630596910210297 USDC)sell276,021.64 USDC (shortened; full value 276021.641349305709948458028300089691180164561804507199 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 274,789.84 USDC (shortened; full value 274789.84460480617734735533366 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 2 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 230,462.73 USDC (shortened; full value 230462.7394186955588700112835639015 USDC)
Highest: 277,597.58 USDC (shortened; full value 277597.5862915860533192945002795502 USDC)

2026-09-12T05:52:47Z — 2026-10-02T23:09:27ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 259,164.11 USDC (shortened; full value 259164.1190647675815592669541504317 USDC)
5% from mid: 259,276.79 USDC (shortened; full value 259276.7973194135808965114879490643 USDC)
10% from mid: 259,376.06 USDC (shortened; full value 259376.0660753747864381436638016542 USDC)

499 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

493 of 499

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

493 of 499

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 274,789.84 USDC (shortened; full value 274789.84460480617734735533366 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0.11 USDC (shortened; full value 0.1164878 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 2,358,958.1450 (shortened; full value 2358958.1450143807106611622303794904)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 274,789.96 USDC (shortened; full value 274789.96109260617734735533366 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh