Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

USDx / USDC

GAVH…KDMN

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.0000039 USDC (shortened; full value 0.000003978 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy4.10 USDC (shortened; full value 4.1048188230741761722781827272 USDC)sell10,356.02 USDC (shortened; full value 10356.024345758838509932515020288023824531555221056935 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 0.000015 USDC (shortened; full value 0.000015912 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 5 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 1.40 USDC (shortened; full value 1.4091055801104326426194606221 USDC)
Highest: 7.91 USDC (shortened; full value 7.9143176179724046213181722393 USDC)

2026-09-25T23:59:29Z — 2026-10-03T19:39:27ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 1.84 USDC (shortened; full value 1.84122184125423686144685544 USDC)
5% from mid: 4.10 USDC (shortened; full value 4.1048188230741761722781827272 USDC)
10% from mid: 7.80 USDC (shortened; full value 7.8067791596278926327584396158 USDC)

9 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

throughout

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 0.000015 USDC (shortened; full value 0.000015912 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 0.000015 USDC (shortened; full value 0.000015912 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh