Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

USDM / USDC

GDHD…USDM

Risk band

Medium

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 1,504.69 USDC (shortened; full value 1504.693756467463945587803300513035207944576411974464 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy471,084.09 USDC (shortened; full value 471084.0922278586224602143138808608 USDC)sell3,001.18 USDC (shortened; full value 3001.18365761788588108793812654209491568778713773233 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 471,077.06 USDC (shortened; full value 471077.06905271895662717570976 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 1 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 1.75 USDC (shortened; full value 1.7568250529867201113490232209 USDC)
Highest: 471,094.88 USDC (shortened; full value 471094.8870348798796494371801485907 USDC)

2026-09-11T17:48:23Z — 2026-10-02T10:09:22ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 1.93 USDC (shortened; full value 1.9353452524971245694809813099 USDC)
5% from mid: 471,083.52 USDC (shortened; full value 471083.521972205085897570770219134 USDC)
10% from mid: 471,091.18 USDC (shortened; full value 471091.1883892824574285490782960446 USDC)

498 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Volume may be wash tradedWASH_TRADE_SUSPECTED

20 of 498

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 471,077.06 USDC (shortened; full value 471077.06905271895662717570976 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0.33 USDC (shortened; full value 0.3399455 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 1,385,742.9177 (shortened; full value 1385742.9177698159164547720436364064)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 471,077.40 USDC (shortened; full value 471077.40899821895662717570976 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh