Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

LIBRE / USDC

GAYC…F5CY

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.09 USDC (shortened; full value 0.09202875 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy0 USDCsell15.74 USDC (shortened; full value 15.743338092959130032865219857041045535088688335024 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 0.36 USDC (shortened; full value 0.368115 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 5 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 0 USDC
Highest: 25.60 USDC (shortened; full value 25.6002961378633875637145153247 USDC)

2026-09-11T17:48:07Z — 2026-10-02T10:38:57ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 2.82 USDC (shortened; full value 2.8297397340837735337541997999 USDC)
5% from mid: 7.01 USDC (shortened; full value 7.0102867191829767541333682643 USDC)
10% from mid: 13.84 USDC (shortened; full value 13.8472896168867635318966391871 USDC)

498 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

480 of 498

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

365 of 498

Nothing tradable within 2%nowZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

336 of 498

Price sources disagreePRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

153 of 498

No genuine trade in 7 daysNO_GENUINE_TRADE_7D

77 of 498

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 0.36 USDC (shortened; full value 0.368115 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 0.36 USDC (shortened; full value 0.368115 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh