Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

FRED / USDC

GCA7…ZLV6

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.000051 USDC (shortened; full value 0.0000514500035902170766125 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy23.78 USDC (shortened; full value 23.7852153774073783495126107538 USDC)sell24.24 USDC (shortened; full value 24.241562628204063084875052331431841353444881136811 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 0.00020 USDC (shortened; full value 0.00020580001436086830645 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 5 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 0 USDC
Highest: 89.14 USDC (shortened; full value 89.1443487067689631178198293884 USDC)

2026-09-11T23:48:00Z — 2026-10-02T10:38:42ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 49.41 USDC (shortened; full value 49.4130189066016228614237607773 USDC)
5% from mid: 64.48 USDC (shortened; full value 64.4887886830403661043562014599 USDC)
10% from mid: 89.14 USDC (shortened; full value 89.1443487067689631178198293884 USDC)

22 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

18 of 22

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

15 of 22

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

7 of 22

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

7 of 22

No genuine trade in 7 daysNO_GENUINE_TRADE_7D

1 of 22

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 0.00020 USDC (shortened; full value 0.00020580001436086830645 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 0.00020 USDC (shortened; full value 0.00020580001436086830645 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh