Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

EURC / USDC

GAQR…Z7NM

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 25.32 USDC (shortened; full value 25.3273317945414914146638975 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy8.92 USDC (shortened; full value 8.9291892382736292610626761739 USDC)sell134.01 USDC (shortened; full value 134.016458887738900181525870032851771485783829494584 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 101.30 USDC (shortened; full value 101.30932717816596565865559 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 0 USDC
Highest: 18.91 USDC (shortened; full value 18.9162803157102800294758920766 USDC)

2026-09-11T17:47:56Z — 2026-10-02T10:38:37ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 1.62 USDC (shortened; full value 1.6274924124093298418969001969 USDC)
5% from mid: 6.78 USDC (shortened; full value 6.7870241971172805503308642332 USDC)
10% from mid: 14.00 USDC (shortened; full value 14.008158258226029101195525277 USDC)

498 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

145 of 498

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

252 of 498

Extreme spreadSPREAD_EXTREME

181 of 498

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 101.30 USDC (shortened; full value 101.30932717816596565865559 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 101.30 USDC (shortened; full value 101.30932717816596565865559 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh