Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTCLN / USDC

GDPK…VBVT

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 10.40 USDC (shortened; full value 10.406312603978267180976855627373238303815283447202 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy10.07 USDC (shortened; full value 10.0760029618469617892515198128 USDC)sell10.26 USDC (shortened; full value 10.269316230052215599353275707745126704411043192931 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 4 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 4.05 USDC (shortened; full value 4.0579382422478565141727167208 USDC)
Highest: 360.42 USDC (shortened; full value 360.4200336475567136390158092068 USDC)

2026-10-02T23:53:32Z — 2026-10-03T16:08:32ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 4.05 USDC (shortened; full value 4.0579382422478565141727167208 USDC)
5% from mid: 10.07 USDC (shortened; full value 10.0709636577658546944162039877 USDC)
10% from mid: 360.40 USDC (shortened; full value 360.4019646511286957891994503409 USDC)

2 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

throughout

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh