Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTCLN / USDC

GDPK…VBVT

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 10.40 USDC (shortened; full value 10.408039418480842535855414815410586376730136781706 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy10.07 USDC (shortened; full value 10.0776749646718782965476976594 USDC)sell10.27 USDC (shortened; full value 10.271020311495128177630865663501673485324409465343 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 4 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

The stored series carries one manipulation rung, the +50% move. A reading the engine could not produce breaks the line rather than sitting at zero.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 22,988.19 USDC (shortened; full value 22988.19696510009673486444238 USDC)
Highest: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)

2026-09-26T23:50:46Z — 2026-10-03T16:23:32Z

Cost to move +50%: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)

8 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

throughout

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

No genuine trade in 7 daysNO_GENUINE_TRADE_7D

4 of 8

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh