Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTC / USDC

GDPJ…2MZM

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 1,380.17 USDC (shortened; full value 1380.179891947867195233300310976703948604402922189334 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy2,492.40 USDC (shortened; full value 2492.403980746319842565525018007 USDC)sell1,566.66 USDC (shortened; full value 1566.669649745087855483008927251272221517588433725884 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 25,110.40 USDC (shortened; full value 25110.40361084274530432647353 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 3.71 USDC (shortened; full value 3.7134460893019335646341896068 USDC)
Highest: 21,587.26 USDC (shortened; full value 21587.2643832612485205934963467257 USDC)

2026-09-11T23:47:54Z — 2026-10-02T10:38:32ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 187.93 USDC (shortened; full value 187.9386313098058811172608222728 USDC)
5% from mid: 1,474.06 USDC (shortened; full value 1474.0630018800728587097278789373 USDC)
10% from mid: 21,587.26 USDC (shortened; full value 21587.2643832612485205934963467257 USDC)

22 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

7 of 22

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

7 of 22

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

1 of 22

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 25,110.40 USDC (shortened; full value 25110.40361084274530432647353 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 25.59 USDC (shortened; full value 25.5969042 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 980.9937 (shortened; full value 980.9937723188707056350382219269)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 25,136.00 USDC (shortened; full value 25136.00051504274530432647353 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh