Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

AIus / USDC

GDBY…4QWU

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.48 USDC (shortened; full value 0.4871741502432625 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy33.54 USDC (shortened; full value 33.5464383758416336000112567603 USDC)sell34.19 USDC (shortened; full value 34.19004950897165650727777275599703642184096513095 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 1.94 USDC (shortened; full value 1.94869660097305 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 7 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 12.65 USDC (shortened; full value 12.6550723975781353818738513635 USDC)
Highest: 67.47 USDC (shortened; full value 67.4761505105898622963284080043 USDC)

2026-09-11T23:47:49Z — 2026-10-02T10:38:22ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 13.65 USDC (shortened; full value 13.6590930679476570290390464014 USDC)
5% from mid: 33.89 USDC (shortened; full value 33.8990529171767397515431189429 USDC)
10% from mid: 67.00 USDC (shortened; full value 67.000143428016627641960466929 USDC)

22 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

throughout

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

21 of 22

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

21 of 22

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

21 of 22

No genuine trade in 7 daysNO_GENUINE_TRADE_7D

9 of 22

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 1.94 USDC (shortened; full value 1.94869660097305 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 1.94 USDC (shortened; full value 1.94869660097305 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh