Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

AIus / USDC

GDBY…4QWU

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.48 USDC (shortened; full value 0.4871741502432625 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy33.54 USDC (shortened; full value 33.5421543447942068728610816127 USDC)sell34.18 USDC (shortened; full value 34.185683285601701513894036930212056619189833379857 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 1.94 USDC (shortened; full value 1.94869660097305 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 7 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 13.51 USDC (shortened; full value 13.5152863852332265198091965075 USDC)
Highest: 66.29 USDC (shortened; full value 66.2985367675977027262339577908 USDC)

2026-10-02T23:53:22Z — 2026-10-03T17:08:22ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 13.51 USDC (shortened; full value 13.5152863852332265198091965075 USDC)
5% from mid: 33.54 USDC (shortened; full value 33.5421543447942068728610816127 USDC)
10% from mid: 66.29 USDC (shortened; full value 66.2947474287828045233729765743 USDC)

2 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

throughout

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

throughout

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

throughout

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 1.94 USDC (shortened; full value 1.94869660097305 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 1.94 USDC (shortened; full value 1.94869660097305 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh