Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

AIus / USDC

GDBY…4QWU

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.48 USDC (shortened; full value 0.4871741502432625 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy33.56 USDC (shortened; full value 33.5605790268712661805602377212 USDC)sell34.20 USDC (shortened; full value 34.204461458910498755478193602224944476221343011567 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 1.94 USDC (shortened; full value 1.94869660097305 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 7 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 13.47 USDC (shortened; full value 13.471781490799104088144345045 USDC)
Highest: 66.86 USDC (shortened; full value 66.8651847157588256055461421887 USDC)

2026-10-02T15:53:22Z — 2026-10-03T15:08:22ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 13.52 USDC (shortened; full value 13.5291152502163414115622184515 USDC)
5% from mid: 33.57 USDC (shortened; full value 33.5764747399036981491735464895 USDC)
10% from mid: 66.36 USDC (shortened; full value 66.3625803406399326488667938369 USDC)

25 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

throughout

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

throughout

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

throughout

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 1.94 USDC (shortened; full value 1.94869660097305 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 1.94 USDC (shortened; full value 1.94869660097305 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh