Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

AFR / USDC

GBX6…N54W

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 26.85 USDC (shortened; full value 26.856120755708190558939172837604220631707418787234 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy54.67 USDC (shortened; full value 54.6745249002558660557941789338 USDC)sell23.81 USDC (shortened; full value 23.818866567460307183126535720432084783303161476798 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 615.21 USDC (shortened; full value 615.21492050003293712022968 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 0 USDC
Highest: 311.07 USDC (shortened; full value 311.0703626291242682538416824584 USDC)

2026-09-11T23:47:49Z — 2026-10-02T10:38:22ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 20.99 USDC (shortened; full value 20.9937219496029649112153418804 USDC)
5% from mid: 38.07 USDC (shortened; full value 38.0744095849688987978516858724 USDC)
10% from mid: 66.00 USDC (shortened; full value 66.0087232702387123302207388595 USDC)

22 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

7 of 22

Extreme spreadSPREAD_EXTREME

11 of 22

Price sources disagreePRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

6 of 22

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

6 of 22

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 615.21 USDC (shortened; full value 615.21492050003293712022968 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 615.21 USDC (shortened; full value 615.21492050003293712022968 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh